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Prediction for CME (2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-02-15T01:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/37353/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-02-17T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/37355/1
Model Inputs:
2025-02-15T01:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-31.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=722.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2025-02-15T05:48Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact: Cursory glancing blow;
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-02-17T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-16T20:38Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-19T06:00Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-19T11:00Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-02-18T20:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250215_054800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 42.13 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-02-15T17:52Z

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